Crusader Corner: Al Shabaab 101

Islamist Groups Currently in Somalia:

• Al Shabaab
• Hizbul Islam
• Islamic Courts Union

The recent U.S. airstrike targeting al Shabaab is the latest in a series of fights that seem to be growing in intensity. Below is a brief timeline of al Shabaab:

History:

Al-Shabaab is an al-Qaida associated militant group that seeks to establish an Islamic state in Somalia. Al-Shabaab also seeks to promote Shari’a law internationally and has encouraged “lone-wolf” style attacks against the U.S. Initially, Al-Shabaab was the military force behind the Somali Islamic Courts. Al-Shabaab became an independent entity by late 2007. Al-Shabaab once controlled significant portions of Somalia, including strong influence in Mogadishu, but invasion by the Ethiopian army in 2006 and military action thereafter by the African Union has weakened it. Al-Shabaab characterized the Ethiopian invasion as an attack by a “crusader” army since Ethiopia is a mostly Christian nation.

In 2008, Sheikh Mukhtar Robow reportedly told a BBC journalist that Al-Shabaab was pleased to be on the list of foreign terrorist organizations.

In 2011, Kenyan forces attacked Al-Shabaab in Kismayo, Somalia after Shabaab members blocked humanitarian aid.

In February 2012, Al-Shabaab leader Mukhtar Abu Al-Zubair publically announced Shabaab allegiance with Al-Qaeda and vowed to follow Al-Qaeda leader Ayman Al-Zawahiri.

In September 2013, Al-Shabaab members attacked the Westgate Mall in Nairobi, Kenya, killing 67 people and wounding another 175.

In October 2013, U.S. Navy SEALs responded to this attack by targeting a senior Al-Shabaab leader in a failed pre-dawn raid.

In September 2014, a U.S. drone strike killed al Shabaab founder and leader Ahmed Abdi Godane.

Americans in al Shabaab:

In 2008, an Al- Shabaab leader stated that the global jihad and the jihad in Somalia were consistent and complementary goals, but they lacked sufficient foreign fighters. Al-Shabaab broadened its message of appeal beginning around 2010 when videos surfaced encouraging foreigners to travel to Somalia to fight a greater jihad against the West and establish an Islamic state. In a video released circa 2010, Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan urged would-be jihadists to come help “free your brothers from darkness of oppression” and “gain honor in this life and the next.” Nabhan was killed by U.S. special operations forces in September 2009, prior to the release of the video.

Sources estimate that between two dozen and up to fifty Americans or permanent residents have traveled or attempted to travel to join Al-Shabaab since 2007. The first known American suicide bomber, Shirwa Ahmed, joined Al-Shabaab and attacked the Ethiopian Consulate in 2009. At least two other Americans, Farah Beledi and Abdisalan Ali, followed in Ahmed’s footsteps.

A former American soldier, Craig Baxam, was arrested in Kenya as he attempted to join Al-Shabaab. When questioned, Baxam stated that it was a religious obligation to join Shabaab and fight.

Ruben Shumpert, a American convert to Islam, is believed to have been killed in Somalia in 2008 while fighting for Al-Shabaab.

Omar Hammami, a native of Alabama of Syrian descent, also traveled to Somalia to join Al-Shabaab and became a leader in the group. Omar Hamammi stated in his autobiography “I was mixed between the ‘hatred of terrorism’ instilled by the ‘Salafis’ and between my real hatred for America, the disbelievers, and their oppression of the Muslims.” Hammami was reportedly killed by al Shabaab in late 2013 after falling out of favor with its leadership.

Al-Shabaab’s target constituency for recruitment is the 150,000 to 200,000 ethnic Somalis who live in the United States. Al-Shabaab was able to appeal to these Somali Americans after the 2006 invasion of Somalia by Ethiopia. Because Ethiopia is a predominantly Christian nation, many Somalis were humiliated and angered by the invasion.

For its part, the United States continues to arrest and prosecute members of Al-Shabaab domestically and target them overseas militarily. In August 2010, the U.S. indicted fourteen individuals with providing material support to Al-Shabaab.

Most recently, in March 2016, the United States reportedly killed approximately 120 al Shabaab fighters at a training camp some 120 miles north of Mogadishu during a strike involving both drones and manned aircraft. News sources reported the use of Reaper and Predator drones to target al Shabaab members in military formation at the Raso training camp in central Somalia.

Read the Original Article at Medium

ISIS Corner: The Islamic State’s Tunisia Strategy

Bottom Line Up Front:

• Armed militants are suspected to have crossed into Tunisia from Libya on March 7, carrying out attacks on Tunisian security forces in the border town of Ben Gardane

• The assault comes less than a week after five militants crossed the border from Libya and were killed in a shootout with Tunisian forces in the same town

• The increase in infiltrations from Libya follows a February 19 U.S. airstrike on an Islamic State training camp outside the Libyan city of Sabratha, near the Tunisian border

• From its positions in Libya, the Islamic State will likely continue to utilize its large contingent of Tunisian fighters to carry out attacks intended to undermine Tunisian stability.  

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Armed militants are suspected to have crossed into Tunisia from Libya on March 7, carrying out a series of coordinated attacks against Tunisian security forces in the eastern border town of Ben Gardane. The attacks targeted an army base, a national guard post, and a police station, leaving 53 dead—including 35 militants, 11 members of the security forces, and seven civilians. The assault comes less than a week after a March 2 raid by Tunisian security forces that resulted in the death of five militants in a house near Ben Gardane. As the security situation in neighboring Libya has deteriorated, Tunisia has become increasingly concerned about militants—particularly those from the so-called Islamic State—infiltrating the country to carry out attacks. While it is unclear if the militants in Ben Gardane did indeed belong to the Islamic State, Tunisia is the logical next stepping stone for the group’s expansion in North Africa. 

The March 7 assault represents a turning point for Tunisia in its battle against the Islamic State. Elevated concerns over border incursions had already compelled the Tunisian government to construct a 125-mile wall along the border with Libya. However, based on the scale and coordination of the assault on security forces, the wall is hardly serving as a deterrent. The five militants killed on March 2 were targeted in a raid on a safe house; the March 7 attacks launched an open assault on the security forces within Tunisian territory—a clear escalation in terms of operational capability. The audacity of this attack was not lost on Tunisian President Beji Caid Essebsi, who called the attack ‘unprecedented,’ adding the motive was ‘probably to take control over the region, and to announce a new wilayah.’ 

Tunisians represent the single largest contingent of foreigners fighting with the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria and new Tunisian recruits are now being directed to join the group in Libya. Ben Gardane in particular has long been known as a hotbed of recruitment for the Islamic State and other jihadist groups, making the recent uptick in suspected Islamic State activity in the town particularly alarming for Tunisian officials. According to Tunisian intelligence services, the Tunisian militants who carried out the attacks on the Bardo museum in Tunis and the Riu Imperial Marhaba resort in Sousse were trained in an Islamic State camp near the western Libyan city of Sabratha. That camp was the target of a U.S. airstrike on February 19, after intelligence officials became concerned that Islamic State militants were preparing for another attack—though the exact nature of the threat remains unclear. The airstrike specifically targeted Noureddine Chouchane, a senior Tunisian member of the Islamic State in Libya who had been recruiting and training Tunisians to carry out attacks in their homeland. 

The Islamic State’s exact strategy in Tunisia remains unclear. It could very well be that the March 7 assault was meant to test Tunisian defenses, and to prepare for a large-scale attempt to take Ben Gardane. Long a haven for militant jihadism, the town’s capture would hold symbolic importance for the Islamic State. The former leader of al-Qaeda in Iraq—the precursor to the Islamic State—Abu Musab al-Zarqawi is reported to have stated: ‘If Ben Gardane had been located next to Fallujah, we would have liberated Iraq.’ The town also lies on key smuggling routes, and has long been used as a smuggling hub. If the Islamic State plans to expand its territory into Tunisia, Ben Gardane would be an ideal beachhead for the group. 

However, it is more likely that the Islamic State will continue to use its positions in Libya to chip away at stability in Tunisia. The March 7 assault proved that the group is not yet strong enough to take and hold territory within the country, as Tunisian security forces are well-trained, well-armed, and backed by Western allies; on March 1, prior to the incidents in Ben Gardane, the UK announced the deployment of special operations forces to Tunisia to assist with border security. The attacks on the Bardo museum and the Riu Imperial resort, as well as the November 2015 bombing of a bus carrying members of the Presidential Guard in Tunis, clearly demonstrated the Islamic State’s capacity to carry out devastating attacks on Tunisian soil. As long as the group can maintain its operational base in Libya, the risks of repeated direct conflict with Tunisian security forces are unnecessary. Instead, the Islamic State will continue to establish cells in Tunisia, in the hopes that repeated terror incidents will destabilize the Tunisian government. If the government does falter, the Islamic State will be prepared to strike.

Read the Original Article at The Soufan Group

Defeating Al-Qaeda’s Nodes

Al Qaeda and the Islamic State thrive in lawless and ungoverned spaces where there is no rule of law to keep them in check.  Al Qaeda’s home base in Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) is the epitome of such a place, but the tide there has been turning against them over the last decade, as Pakistan slowly improves its reach into these historically ungoverned lands.  Terrorist organizations cannot thrive where there is a functioning government, rule of law, courts, effective policing, etc.  Yes, they can exist and function in first world countries, but they really don’t thrive.

On one of my early forays to Pakistan in 2003, we were encouraging the Pakistan military to go into the then notorious Shakai Valley, a remote place in the FATA that had become ground zero for al Qaeda senior leadership and other miscreants.  For us in the intelligence community, the Shakai Valley was the root of all evil.  After some coaxing, in May 2004, the Pakistan military went into the Shakai Valley for the first time to confront al Qaeda in an attack led from the air, quickly followed by boots on the ground.

The evening of the attack, I was sitting with senior Pakistan military leaders drinking tea and congratulating them on the success of their foray into the FATA.  They were glowing over their success, and there was almost a sense of disbelief in the room.  Pakistan had taken the offensive, gone into the FATA, removed the terrorist threat, and then held its position overnight (and for a few subsequent days, or weeks).  Talking about the day’s events, one Pakistani General, shaking his head in complete disbelief, told me that if I had asked him six months ago when he thought the Pakistan military would go into the FATA and take and hold land, he would have answered, “It won’t happen in my lifetime…”

Read the remainder at Cipher Brief

ISIS Corner: Dunford calls for Military Action against ISIS in Libya

Dunford said that international military action against ISIS in Libya could be expected within weeks.

Two weeks after Algerian media for the first time reported that something dramatic was about to happen in Libya, it becomes increasingly clear that the West is indeed planning to take the fight against Islamic State in a new way in the North African country.

Digital Journal, a global digital media network with thousands of members, confirmed on Sunday that members of the coalitions fighting ISIS in Syria and Iraq are preparing for an intervention in Libya where Islamic State has made significant gains over the past few months.

The media network cited General Joseph Dunford, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who last week said that he was very concerned about the spread of Islamic State in Libya and that “decisive military action to check ISIS expansion” had become very likely. Dunford said that international military action against ISIS in Libya could be expected within weeks. He warned that if nothing is done, ISIS will use Libya as a beachhead for further expansion into Arab and North African countries.

A meeting in Rome about aid to Libya was apparently used by several world powers to discuss the military options in the war-torn country, which has witnessed increasing chaos and bloodshed since the ouster of Muammar Gaddafi in the summer of 2011.

The German newspaper Die Welt reported that the intervention would gain international legitimacy if the foreign intervention was requested by the new unity government that was formed last week under a UN-brokered deal.

“The only thing missing for a military intervention is the legal framework. As soon as the new Libyan unity government is formed, it can proceed. When Libya has a united and to some extent legitimate government again, then there is someone in response to whose request a western military intervention can take place within the framework of international law,” Die Welt reported.

Read the Remainder at Western Journalism