Learning from Terrorist Tactics: Becoming Anonymous

 

In a recent article in Jihad Watch Robert Spencer talks about how the 24 year old jihadist who committed the Tunisian Resort Massacre last week where 39 people were killed and at least 39 others were wounded, managed, before the attack, to go completely un-noticed by the public. As Spencer points out, this is clearly due to the instruction and training these men are getting from sources such as the ISIS handbook “How to Survive in the West.”

In studying this attack. Two things stuck out to me.

1. Anonymity of Shooter

The shooter that day dressed like everybody else at a beach resort. Shorts and a T-Shirt. It is not logical to think a person could conceal an AK-47 rifle on a crowded beach of sunbathers, does it? I mean clothing is sparse to say the least on a beach, and if you showed up in say, a long black trenchcoat, you might look somewhat suspicious, right?  So where can you hide an assault rifle on a beach? The shooter put the weapon in something everybody else had that day most likely: A Sun Umbrella; which when you consider the options for concealment, barring a large cooler or maybe a large bag, is the best choice to not draw attention. (Note: For those of you that don’t know, or are not familiar with the AK weapon system, some models of AK-47’s have either underfolding or side folding stocks, which when folded, make the gun very compact, only about 26 or 27 inches long, so this is most likely how the gun was concealed in the umbrella.)

Police on the scene also said the shooter reloaded “at least twice” before he was killed, which means he would have to had at least (3) 30 rd AK Magazines on him. These would have had to been carried in a separate bag of some sort, or possibly they could have been carried in the pockets of his shorts. An interesting note on the shorts, witnesses said he was wearing DARK colored shorts. Dark colored clothing does not “print” as obviously as light colored clothing, so this is why he most likely could have concealed 3 AK magazines in the pockets without arousing suspicion.

2.  Deception

Although I doubt it was in the shooters mind at the time, his tactics were closely modeled after Sun Tzu’s instruction in the Art of War concerning Deception:

“All warfare is based on deception. Hence, when we are able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must appear inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near.”

Elaborating on this topic, Jeremiah Bourque, a Sun Tsu blogger and Historian, writes:

“Unable to simply show the enemy nothing, the strategist instead shows his opponent something that the opponent wishes to see and wishes to believe. Having shown something, but having shown this something in a way that creates a false impression, the enemy is seduced into deceiving himself.”

So, in essence, that day, the shooter showed everybody on that beach what they expected to see: a man dressed like everybody else, shorts and t-shirt, carrying what most everybody else was carrying, a sun umbrella; and in doing this, he remained under the radar of everybody on that beach and was free to carry out his nefarious plan of murder. This simple tactic can be applied in all elements of warfare, including 5th dimension cyber-warfare and in the use of propaganda.

As Armed Citizens, we have to understand that a wide variety of terrorist groups all over the Globe, including ISIS, Al Shabaab and Boko Haram have subscribed to this Active Shooter (and Knife) Tactic for over a decade now. When you look back at the success to failure ratio of most of these attacks, compared to total number of people killed, you can see why they still attempt these attacks year after year. It is also important for the Western mind to grasp that the terrorist DO NOT see their DEATHS as a failure in these attacks, on the contrary, they see it as a success. Bottom line, martyrdom during jihad is the pinnacle of these twisted peoples short lives.

Here is a small list: 

• Mumbai Attacks, 2008 (164 killed)
• Fort Hood, TX Shooting in 2009 (14 killed)
• Westgate Shopping Mall, Nairobi Kenya in 2013 (67 Killed)
• The Charlie Hebdo Massacre in Paris (12 Killed)
• Tel Aviv Attack (12 People Stabbed on Bus)
• Attempted Shooting in Garland, TX (2 shooters killed)

So in closing, how do you pre-empt an attack you can’t see coming? As a civilian, that is a hard question to answer, because there are so many variables at play. As a LEO or Security Pro, there would be a myriad of things you could do to heighten physical security, but as a civilian, the simple response is you can’t. I know there are a lot of tactical gurus out there telling you to always be in “Condition Yellow or Red” but even that advice in this scenario is impotent, because the enemy is not giving anything to CUE off of so you can react.

Add to this dilemma that if we use the majority of past attacks as an indicator, there is a good chance that future active shooter attacks will feature these elements:

• More than one shooter
• Shooters Wearing body armour
• Use of assault rifles
• Each shooter carrying 3 to 6 magazines, each
• Some shooters have had military training on assaults

The only sensible thing you can do as an armed civilian is to ensure your firearms training reflects all of these realities:

• Your Goal is to ESCAPE the Kill Zone, not be a Hero (Egress)
• Be prepared to KILL if the situation calls for it (Violence of Action)
• Be ready to REACT with speed on multiple targets with your sidearm
• Be able to MOVE (toward cover or exits preferably) and SHOOT at same time
• Understand the need to transition to a HEAD SHOT if shooter is wearing body armor
• Again, ALWAYS Fight to Egress out of the Kill Zone! (Egress!!)

Stay Alert, Stay Armed and Stay Dangerous!

The Garland Attack: Re-Evaluating the CO’s Training Focus

The CO must constantly re-evaluate his training to see that it is RELEVANT and REALISTIC to the current threat. Right now, the most pressing CURRENT threat to the Civilian Operator is without a doubt, MULTIPLE ACTIVE SHOOTERS  as was seen in Garland, TX this past Sunday.

First of all, before I get too deep into this subject, let me be clear: Kudos to the LE officer who was working security for the event who put these two POS down. Awesome job. Also to the other man working security who was wounded in the ankle; our prayers go out to you and your family at this time, hoping you make a full and speedy recovery.

Please understand, What I am about to say has nothing to do with the job these brave men did in any way, it is simply about CIVILIANS being realistically prepared for the next attack.

The Attack that Happened this past Sunday in Garland, TX has to be seen simply as a fluke. Now I am not saying that to demean anything related to how the LE reacted and performed, that was flawless. No, what I am talking about is if we look at the Modus Operandi of ISIS and study the Paris Hebdo Massacre  from January of this year, we can quickly deduce that these two shooters that were killed were in no way “trained” like the Paris shooters were. Even though they were outfitted in much the same manner: Body Armour and AK-47’s; what they were lacking was everything else necessary to be successful, such as tactical training, prior planning and battlefield no-how. Simply put: it was amateur hour in Dallas that day for these so-called “terrorist.” They were stupid, and that brave LEO took advantage of it. We cannot count on that scenario happening again, in fact, I can almost guarantee it won’t because ISIS has shown it does learn from its failures quickly.

“If your opponent is temperamental, seek to irritate him. Pretend to be weak, that he may grow arrogant.” -(Sun Tzu, The Art of War)

In a prior post, I wrote about something called Guerilla Terrorism. Simply put, and without going into all the lengthy history, Guerilla Terrorism uses the same principles of Guerilla Warfare: Just like any insurgency, the first and foremost battle ISIS wants to win is the “Hearts and minds” publicity war. In the age of 24 hours news services and “instant information” the rule of thumb is to Get Headlines; Make News; irregardless if the operation was successful, just get some type of world news headline out there to keep ISIS and TERRORISM at the forefront of Americans minds. (Plus give ISIS something to put on continuous loop on their websites and to celebrate back home) That is why I feel these small operations like the one in Garland are but sideshows meant not to really be successful as much as they are to be a distraction and a feint maneuver to get U.S. Law Enforcement Authorities off the real objective. This mirrors another tactic used extensively by insurgents for centuries in the annals of Guerilla Warfare:  when your foe is a big, powerful nation with millions of dollars and hundreds of thousands of soldiers or officers; make them STRETCH and WASTE their resources. Make them frivolously  pursue useless investigations, spend money and man hours finding out WHO this person was and who he knew, what training he had, etc. All the while another cell, totally off anybody’s radar, is setting up for the next attack, the REAL attack without any LE being the wiser.

Training Broad Strokes

For the CO to train realistically for this type of Active Shooter scenario, he is going to have to realize that most likely, a handgun will be woefully inadequate for the task. As I said before, in using prior attacks like Paris and Garland as a blueprint, most likely the terrorist will be:

• Multiple in Number (Paris Hebdo Attack had 3, Garland had 2)
• Armed with high power Assault Rifles
• Wearing Body Armour
• Using Small Unit Tactics

That being said however, we cannot discount the handgun, since it will be the FIRST and most ACCESSIBLE TOOL the CO can get to in a pinch once the shooting starts. At present, there are over 11 Million Americans with Concealed Carry Permits in the United States according to the Crime Prevention Research Center. That at first glance may seem like an impressive number, but since the majority of license holders DO NOT seek any more advanced training beyond the 8 hour state mandated course, Yeah, you may have an armed civilian present but you may not have a skilled one. Simply HAVING a gun in this situation will not cut it.

There is also the issue of ammo. The average CCL carries only (1) spare magazine with them. Even with a high capacity magazine such as the G19 (17+1) rounds, 35 rounds of 9mm versus just 1 magazine of 30 rounds of 7.62×39 AK-47 Ammo is piss poor odds.Up your odds and carry more mags, up to (3) if possible.

PROPOSED ADVANCED HANDGUN SKILLS

• Headshots at distances over 25 yds to defeat body armor
• Firing while moving to cover
• Shooting one-handed
• Pick Your Shots, NO Fire Superiority with a Pistol vs Rifle!

VARIOUS COMBAT TACTICS/OTHER SKILLS

• Using LUP’s (Lay Up Positions)
• Using Cover
• Fighting around vehicles
• Exploiting lulls in the fight, such as the enemies mag changes
• Ability to Self-Treat and Apply First Aid to Gunshot Wounds

What about a Long Gun?

The primary challenge with the CO having a long gun (maybe some type of rifle caliber AK or AR pistol) available is (1) Keeping it somewhere accessible, such as a vehicle, which is legal in Texas, but the CO may run into some bullshit safety issues with their employer, depending. Of course the issue of theft prevention would have to be addressed by some type of bio metric or key lock box welded to the vehicle’s frame. Beyond that, let’s say you do have some type of long arm in your vehicle and a situation like the one in Garland happens. Now What? Now you have to go retrieve the weapon with shooters firing at anything that moves. Not a realistic or a GOOD scenario. Bottom line guys: Whatever you have ON YOUR PERSON (Concealed Carry Permit Holders) is what you are MOST LIKELY going to fight with.

Mistaken Identity? 

Civilians being armed with either handguns or long arms during an Active Shooter event also present another potentially deadly problem: Law Enforcement mistaking you for one of the bad guy’s and opening fire on you when they get on scene. This is a tricky issue to navigate because on one hand you don’t want to be shot by the cops, but on the other hand you don’t want to be shot by the terrorist either. Most all of us train to NEVER HOLSTER or DROP our weapon until we are CERTAIN no more THREATS EXIST, so what is the sensible solution? The only wise thing to do when you know SWAT or HRE are making entry is drop your weapon and get on the floor with your hands behind your head. IMMEDIATELY identify yourself and the shooters location if possible. Another option is if 911 is on the line, is be sure and tell them to pass on to SWAT that there are LEGALLY ARMED CITIZENS engaged with the TERRORIST and IDENTIFY the CITIZENS and the TERRORIST by Shirt Color, build, race, etc., if possible. Of course all this advice is precipitated on the fact no POS terrorist is trying to kill you at the same time all this is happening!

In closing, ISIS has boasted online they have 71 trained soldiers in 15 States. Now whether this is hubris or the truth, who knows, but to err on the side of caution, I urge all CO’s to “batten down the hatches”; keep your loved ones close and choose your trips and destinations with care. We can never let FEAR rule our lives, but we can have discretion and common sense in ALL that we do.

Continue to train, focus on the things we have discussed, and always Keep your Powder Dry!

Stay Alert, Stay Armed and Stay Dangerous!